The charts below show primary competitiveness statistics for the U.S. House from 2014 to 2022. You can also view these ratings as a table. In Abramowitz's model, he sets that at 222 Democratic House seats (out of 435) and 14 Senate seats (out of 34 up in 2022). Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. There were three vacancies. WINNER Mike Garcia, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to. November 7: CA-22, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34 move from Toss-up to Tilts R; CA-49, IN-01, NY-03 Leans to Tilts D; CT-05, NV-01 Tilts D to Toss-up; IL-08, WA-06 Safe to Likely D; ME-02, MN-02 Toss-up to Leans D; NY-22 Leans to Tilts R; OH-01 Toss-up to Leans R; TX-28 Tilts to Leans D; VA-02 Tilts to Leans R; WA-08 Leans D to Toss-up. In the Senate data, the point for 2002 is also well above the regression line while points for several other elections including 1962 and 1978 are also well above or below the line. Candidates running for office in open or Democratic-held House seats are eligible for the Young Guns program. Each square represents an instance where Democrats or Republicans get that much of the popular vote and that many seats. With ten days until the November 8 midterm elections, political forecasters and pollsters say Republicans appear to have a strong chance of retaking control of the House of Representatives.. File usage on Commons. Search our Site: . Redistricting has no bearing on Senate elections, and the 2022 Senate map appears favorable for Democrats. This was 540 votes more than the closest House race in 2020. Four of the delegates filed to run for re-election. Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. When candidates from only one of either the Democratic or Republican parties run for a U.S. House seat, the seat is all but guaranteed to be won by that party. Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information. By Happy Elections Nerd November 16, 2021 July 11, 2022 u.s. house of representatives. . Election Day Live Results: Choose a map to follow along as the votes are counted and races are called. Ballotpedia's 2022 state primary election competitiveness data analyzes all state legislative, state executive, and congressional elections that took place in 2022. November 7:Toss-up races projected. External Relations: Moira Delaney Hannah Nelson Caroline Presnell Steve Shepard, our chief forecaster, has settled on four core principles Current Cook Political 2022 House forecast. These numbers do not include the U.S. territories, Washington D.C., or Louisiana. Republicans' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. November 1:AK-AL, AZ-04, KS-03, NH-01, PA-17 move from Toss-up to Leans D; CA-27, CO-08, NC-13, NV-03, NY-19, OR-05, VA-02 Toss-up to Leans R; CA-40 Safe to Likely R; CA-47, CT-05, NY-04, VA-7, WA-08 Leans D to Toss-up; CT-03 Likely to Safe D; NE-02 Likely to Leans R. The final 2022 House ratings from Elections Daily, a site that provides nonpartisan election coverage. Apportionment is the process whereby the 435 districts in the U.S. House of Representatives are allotted to the states on the basis of population. Apply today! Six states were apportioned one U.S. House district, so no congressional redistricting was required. Two predictors largely explain the variation in seat swing in midterm elections: the generic ballot and the number of House and Senate seats defended by the presidents party. A consensus outlook for the 2022 House elections based on the current ratings of theseseven forecasters. 2022 U.S. House of Representative election results and polls See how many seats Republicans or Democrats have gained or lost. Updated Dec. 13, 2022 at 9:16 a.m. Eastern. The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report, compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. Note: Ballotpedia does not consider these seats to be open when calculating congressional competitiveness data. All rights reserved. House results have ranged from a loss of 64 seats to a gain of eight seats while Senate results have ranged from a loss of 13 seats to a gain of four seats. In 2020, Republicans won 26 of the 27 seats rated as Toss Up by POLITICO. Candidates start in the On the Radar phase before qualifying as a Contender, then as a full-fledged Young Gun. Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Leading candidates forecasted chance of winning and margin of victory in the top 50 competitive districts. The Vanguard program exists to provide support to candidates running in Republican-leaning open seats. We'll always be transparent about why we're making a certain rating. Comments about this content should be directed to the author or syndicate. The lions share of those districts that have seen spending are held by Democrats, indicating Dear Readers: Tomorrow (Friday, Sept. 23) from noon to 1:30 p.m., the Center for Politics will honor the service of U.S. Capitol Police Officers and D.C. Metropolitan Police Officers who defended the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 with the presentation of the Centers first annual Defender of Democracy awards. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- This article updates and applies the seats-in-trouble congressional election forecasting equations to the 2022 midterm elections. He withdrew before the runoff. Election Date: Nov. 8, 2022 | Updated 7:00 PM EST Dec. 23, 2022. To learn more about congressional non-voting members in the U.S. House of Representatives, click here. The original filing deadline was set for March 8, 2022. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+). This page provides an overview of the 2022 U.S. House election. GOP Rep. Don Bacons race is one to watch. Read the analysis ($). For a list of seats that opened up as a result of an incumbent losing re-election in a primary, see the following section. The section below provides generic congressional polling averages over time from RealClearPolitics. Forty-four (44) states adopted congressional district maps. The Maryland Court of Appeals extended the candidate filing deadline from February 22, 2022, to March 22, 2022. [14] One district Indiana's 2nd was vacant because the incumbent passed away.[15]. TheCurrent Houseview on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. The court also extended the filing deadline from March 22, 2022, to April 15, 2022. MONTREAL, Que. The Senate model is not quite as accurate, explaining about 60% of the variance in seat swing. McLeod-Skinner defeated Schrader in the primary. Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. The darker the square, the greater the likelihood this will occur. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r
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