2022 house of representatives election prediction

The charts below show primary competitiveness statistics for the U.S. House from 2014 to 2022. You can also view these ratings as a table. In Abramowitz's model, he sets that at 222 Democratic House seats (out of 435) and 14 Senate seats (out of 34 up in 2022). Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. There were three vacancies. WINNER Mike Garcia, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to. November 7: CA-22, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34 move from Toss-up to Tilts R; CA-49, IN-01, NY-03 Leans to Tilts D; CT-05, NV-01 Tilts D to Toss-up; IL-08, WA-06 Safe to Likely D; ME-02, MN-02 Toss-up to Leans D; NY-22 Leans to Tilts R; OH-01 Toss-up to Leans R; TX-28 Tilts to Leans D; VA-02 Tilts to Leans R; WA-08 Leans D to Toss-up. In the Senate data, the point for 2002 is also well above the regression line while points for several other elections including 1962 and 1978 are also well above or below the line. Candidates running for office in open or Democratic-held House seats are eligible for the Young Guns program. Each square represents an instance where Democrats or Republicans get that much of the popular vote and that many seats. With ten days until the November 8 midterm elections, political forecasters and pollsters say Republicans appear to have a strong chance of retaking control of the House of Representatives.. File usage on Commons. Search our Site: . Redistricting has no bearing on Senate elections, and the 2022 Senate map appears favorable for Democrats. This was 540 votes more than the closest House race in 2020. Four of the delegates filed to run for re-election. Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. When candidates from only one of either the Democratic or Republican parties run for a U.S. House seat, the seat is all but guaranteed to be won by that party. Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information. By Happy Elections Nerd November 16, 2021 July 11, 2022 u.s. house of representatives. . Election Day Live Results: Choose a map to follow along as the votes are counted and races are called. Ballotpedia's 2022 state primary election competitiveness data analyzes all state legislative, state executive, and congressional elections that took place in 2022. November 7:Toss-up races projected. External Relations: Moira Delaney Hannah Nelson Caroline Presnell Steve Shepard, our chief forecaster, has settled on four core principles Current Cook Political 2022 House forecast. These numbers do not include the U.S. territories, Washington D.C., or Louisiana. Republicans' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. November 1:AK-AL, AZ-04, KS-03, NH-01, PA-17 move from Toss-up to Leans D; CA-27, CO-08, NC-13, NV-03, NY-19, OR-05, VA-02 Toss-up to Leans R; CA-40 Safe to Likely R; CA-47, CT-05, NY-04, VA-7, WA-08 Leans D to Toss-up; CT-03 Likely to Safe D; NE-02 Likely to Leans R. The final 2022 House ratings from Elections Daily, a site that provides nonpartisan election coverage. Apportionment is the process whereby the 435 districts in the U.S. House of Representatives are allotted to the states on the basis of population. Apply today! Six states were apportioned one U.S. House district, so no congressional redistricting was required. Two predictors largely explain the variation in seat swing in midterm elections: the generic ballot and the number of House and Senate seats defended by the presidents party. A consensus outlook for the 2022 House elections based on the current ratings of theseseven forecasters. 2022 U.S. House of Representative election results and polls See how many seats Republicans or Democrats have gained or lost. Updated Dec. 13, 2022 at 9:16 a.m. Eastern. The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report, compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. Note: Ballotpedia does not consider these seats to be open when calculating congressional competitiveness data. All rights reserved. House results have ranged from a loss of 64 seats to a gain of eight seats while Senate results have ranged from a loss of 13 seats to a gain of four seats. In 2020, Republicans won 26 of the 27 seats rated as Toss Up by POLITICO. Candidates start in the On the Radar phase before qualifying as a Contender, then as a full-fledged Young Gun. Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Leading candidates forecasted chance of winning and margin of victory in the top 50 competitive districts. The Vanguard program exists to provide support to candidates running in Republican-leaning open seats. We'll always be transparent about why we're making a certain rating. Comments about this content should be directed to the author or syndicate. The lions share of those districts that have seen spending are held by Democrats, indicating Dear Readers: Tomorrow (Friday, Sept. 23) from noon to 1:30 p.m., the Center for Politics will honor the service of U.S. Capitol Police Officers and D.C. Metropolitan Police Officers who defended the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 with the presentation of the Centers first annual Defender of Democracy awards. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- This article updates and applies the seats-in-trouble congressional election forecasting equations to the 2022 midterm elections. He withdrew before the runoff. Election Date: Nov. 8, 2022 | Updated 7:00 PM EST Dec. 23, 2022. To learn more about congressional non-voting members in the U.S. House of Representatives, click here. The original filing deadline was set for March 8, 2022. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+). This page provides an overview of the 2022 U.S. House election. GOP Rep. Don Bacons race is one to watch. Read the analysis ($). For a list of seats that opened up as a result of an incumbent losing re-election in a primary, see the following section. The section below provides generic congressional polling averages over time from RealClearPolitics. Forty-four (44) states adopted congressional district maps. The Maryland Court of Appeals extended the candidate filing deadline from February 22, 2022, to March 22, 2022. [14] One district Indiana's 2nd was vacant because the incumbent passed away.[15]. TheCurrent Houseview on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. The court also extended the filing deadline from March 22, 2022, to April 15, 2022. MONTREAL, Que. The Senate model is not quite as accurate, explaining about 60% of the variance in seat swing. McLeod-Skinner defeated Schrader in the primary. Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. The darker the square, the greater the likelihood this will occur. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r. A federal district court judge affirmed the decision of a state-level judge to postpone the primaries for congressional and state senate offices to August 23, 2022 (the primary was originally scheduled for June 28, 2022). November 7: Toss-up races projected. November 3:AK-AL moves from Tilts to Leans D; CA-13, IL-17, NY-17, RI-02, TX-34 Tilts D to Toss-up; CA-26, NY-25, PA-12 Safe to Likely D; CA-47, CA-49, IL-13, NY-04, OR-04 Leans to Tilts D; CO-08, IA-03, OR-05, VA-02 Toss-up to Tilts R; CT-05 Leans D to Toss-up; FL-13 Likely to Leans R; NY-01 Tilts to Leans RRead the analysis ($) >. GOP Rep. Steve Chabot survived 2020, but Ohio''s new congressional map could be too steep a hill for him to climb. The danger for Democrats is that these races end up Dear Readers: We are pleased to feature an article written by Lucca Ruggieri, a student at Great Valley High School in Malvern, Pennsylvania who interned with us over the summer. Ballotpedia defines wave elections as the 20 percent of elections where the president's party lost the most seats during the last 100 years (50 election cycles). The Supreme Court of Pennsylvania suspended the candidate filing period for the primary election, pending resolution of a redistricting dispute. If an incumbent filed to run in a different district than the one they currently represent, Ballotpedia considers the seat they currently represent as open, as long as no incumbent from another district is running in it. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. A special election for the seat was held concurrently with the general election on November 8. Terms of service | Privacy Policy | Do not sell my info | Notice to California Residents, Design & development: Andrew Briz, Beatrice Jin, Arjun Kakkar, Andrew McGill, Allan James Vestal, Audience & strategy: Caroline Amenabar, Annie Bryan, Kam Burns, Isabel Dobrin, Annie Yu, Elana Zak. Edited by Kyle Kondik, J. Conditional forecasts for the 2022 midterms Democrats currently hold an extraordinarily narrow 220-211 seat majority in the House of Representatives with four seats vacant two Democratic seats and two Republican seats. Premier Franois Legault and his Coalition Avenir Qubec are certain to win the next provincial election. Click here to change which version of the model you see. This chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would target in 2022. Gibbs defeated Meijer in the primary. whether the incumbent was seeking re-election, whether the incumbent was serving his or her first term in Congress, and. This article is reprinted from Sabato's Crystal Ball. Click here for more information about apportionment after the 2020 census. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. Our House Election Forecast has been upgraded into a Live Election Forecast that will predict every Congressional race in the Nation using the latest data from the election results. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin's battleground seat got slightly easier in redistricting, but the GOP thinks it can oust her with a national tailwind. [53][54], The following table displays candidates who qualified as Young Guns for the 2022 election cycle. This was more than in 2020 but fewer than at any other point in the preceding decade. Click here to contact us for media inquiries, and please donate here to support our continued expansion. [59][60], On April 26, 2021, the U.S. Census Bureau released its post-2020 census apportionment counts. Read the Analysis >. -- The goal is to use micro level (congressional district and state) competitiveness assessments in combination with their electoral history to statistically generate an accurate prediction of the KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A congressional forecasting model using political and economic fundamentals suggests that Republicans are favored to flip both the House and the Senate. The current count of House seats assigns vacant seats to the party that held them last. All rights reserved. The latest results and live updates on the 2022 midterm House of Representatives elections by state. Facebook Tweet Pin Email. RCP Gov Map Race . These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. Looking for the national forecast? File history. Senate. Senate, House, and Governor Election results also available at ABCNews.com November 7:CA-03 moves from Leans to Likely R; CA-06, WA-10 Safe to Likely D; CA-13, VA-02 Toss-up to Leans R; MI-11 Likely to Safe D; CO-07, GA-02, NJ-03 Likely to Leans D; GA-12, NC-07, NV-02, SC-01 Likely to Safe R; NV-01 Leans D to Toss-up; NV-04 Toss-up to Leans D. 2023 Electoral Ventures LLC. Will it be a close race or, um, not? Sablan ran as an independent from 2008 to 2020. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data. Ellis' calculations included blank votes in this race. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}})}(); The following table lists incumbents defeated in the 2022 general election for U.S. More information about apportionment after the 2020 census apportionment is the process whereby the 435 districts in the top competitive... Special election for the primary election competitiveness data analyzes all state legislative, state executive, and congressional that! Following section for re-election section below provides generic congressional polling averages over time from RealClearPolitics announced would. 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Margin of victory in the top 50 competitive 2022 house of representatives election prediction race is one watch! Square, the greater the likelihood this will occur numbers do not include U.S.. To contact us for media inquiries, and please donate here to our. Margaret Kearney Eric Lotto Joseph Sanchez extended the filing deadline was set for 8... At 9:16 a.m. Eastern, Republicans won 26 of the 2022 election cycle, no. Nerd November 16, 2021, the U.S. House of Representative election and! This congressional seat legislative, state executive, and the 2022 Senate 2022 house of representatives election prediction favorable... A Contender, then as a table below show primary competitiveness statistics for the census... Passed away. [ 15 ] vote and that many seats the author or syndicate opened as. 59 ] [ 54 ], the U.S. House of Representatives elections by state Legault his... Suspended the candidate filing deadline from February 22, 2022 | updated 7:00 PM EST Dec. 23 2022... 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2022 house of representatives election prediction